LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Consolidated revenue grew 28% year over year to $5.70M, driven by 46% growth in STACYC and higher Electric Motorcycles units; operating loss improved 29% YoY to $(18.8)M, but gross margin turned negative due to incentives, and EPS was $(0.10) versus $(0.11) a year ago .
• Electric Motorcycles units rose 86% YoY (184 vs. 99) on the “Twist and Go” promotion, yet revenue declined 20% as discounts pressured ASPs; segment operating loss improved to $(18.4)M from $(25.0)M .
• Guidance was worsened: full‑year operating loss raised to $(72)–$(77)M from $(59)–$(69)M, citing extended S2 model incentives through Dec 15 and not proceeding with a proposed work statement under the H‑D Joint Development Agreement; units guidance remains withdrawn/not provided .
• Cash discipline continued: YTD net cash used improved 39% to $(48.1)M and cash ended at $16.3M; company launched an at‑the‑market equity program up to $50M to bolster liquidity .
• Near‑term stock catalysts: promotion‑driven unit momentum into Dec 15, EICMA exposure for S4 Honcho with production targeted Spring ’26, and clarity on FY loss run‑rate post‑promotion; risks include dilution from ATM and ongoing margin pressure from incentives .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • STACYC posted 46% revenue growth and narrowed operating loss to $(0.4)M; consolidated revenue +28% YoY and consolidated operating loss improved by $7.7M from Q3’24 .
  • Cost controls reduced consolidated selling, administrative and engineering expense by $9.1M YoY; Electric Motorcycles operating loss improved by $6.6M YoY on $8.8M lower SA&E .
  • CEO: “record‑setting quarter… increase market share and maintain our number one position in U.S. electric motorcycle retail sales in the 50+ horsepower on‑road EV segment” .

• What Went Wrong

  • Electric Motorcycles revenue declined 20% YoY despite +86% units, as incentives to drive demand pressured revenue and margins; segment revenue was $1.0M on 184 units .
  • Gross margin was negative as COGS exceeded revenue; Q3 gross profit $(2.9)M on $5.7M revenue; EPS $(0.10) vs $(0.09) in Q2 (sequential deterioration) .
  • FY operating loss guidance was raised to $(72)–$(77)M (worse), units guidance withheld, and LiveWire will not proceed with a proposed JDA work statement with Harley‑Davidson, removing a potential program and adding uncertainty .

Financial Results

Segment performance and units:

Key KPIs:

Estimate comparisons:

• S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 EPS and revenue was not available for LVWR at the time of this analysis; therefore, beat/miss vs. Street cannot be determined. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO Karim Donnez: “The LiveWire team worked diligently through the quarter to increase market share and maintain our number one position in U.S. electric motorcycle retail sales… by delivering a company record‑setting quarter… STACYC delivered 46% revenue growth… We’re also advancing our strategic expansion to attract new riders with the S4 Honcho… production targeted to start in Spring ’26” .
• CFO commentary (Harley‑Davidson) on LiveWire: “We now expect LiveWire's full‑year operating loss to come in between $72 million and $77 million… LiveWire reported sales of 184 units in Q3 compared to 99… driven by the Twist and Go promotion” .
• Financial policy: launched ATM for up to $50M of additional capital through share issuance .
• Strategic update: decision not to move forward with a proposed work statement under the H‑D Joint Development Agreement .

Q&A Highlights

• Promotions and affordability: H‑D outlined lower APR/longer‑term financing to stimulate demand; while broader H‑D‑focused, it underscores reliance on promotions in a challenging macro, consistent with LiveWire’s “Twist and Go” strategy .
• Outlook cadence: Company refrained from units guidance given volatility; LiveWire extended promotions through Dec 15, implying continued near‑term volume support at lower ASPs .
• LiveWire specifics largely covered in prepared remarks (units, FY loss guidance); Q&A primarily centered on Harley‑Davidson’s network, inventory, and HDFS transaction .

Estimates Context

• Street consensus (S&P Global) for LVWR Q3 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable; as such, we cannot determine beat/miss versus expectations. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

• Implications: Absent consensus, recalibration will focus on company guidance and realized margins; given raised FY operating loss guidance and extended incentives, model updates likely increase FY operating loss and lower gross margin assumptions near term .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Volume vs. margin trade‑off is explicit: incentives materially lifted Q3 units but drove negative gross margin; expect continued pressure through Dec 15 as promotions run, with potential snap‑back risk once promos end .
• Guidance reset: FY operating loss worsened to $(72)–$(77)M; absent units guidance and with incentives extended, near‑term profitability inflection is unlikely before 2026 product launches ramp .
• STACYC remains the growth engine, offsetting motorcycle margin drag; monitor holiday sell‑through and inventory into Q4 for sustainability of revenue gains .
• Liquidity: cash of $16.3M and ATM up to $50M provide flexibility, but also raise dilution risk; watch cadence of ATM usage versus cash burn trajectory .
• 2026 catalysts: S4 Honcho Trail/Street production targeted for Spring ’26; success in lower‑priced segments is key to broadening TAM and easing promo dependence .
• Strategic uncertainty reduced near term with decision against the proposed H‑D JDA work statement; however, it removes a potential program lever—focus shifts to own roadmap and cost controls .
• Trading setup: promotional extension supports Q4 units (potential positive headlines), but margin prints and FY loss guide constrain multiple; watch EICMA reception, December demand, and any ATM activity disclosures for stock moves .

Citations

• Q3 2025 8‑K and EX‑99.1 press release: .
• Q3 2025 earnings call (Harley‑Davidson; LiveWire segment discussed): .
• Q2 2025 8‑K and EX‑99.1: .
• Q1 2025 8‑K and EX‑99.1: .

Note on estimates: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*